The Modelling of Manpower by Markov Chains--a Case Study of the Slovenian Armed Forces (Report‪)‬

The paper presents a case study of manpower planning for the Slovenian armed forces. First, we identified 120 types of military segments (including civil servants). Next, administrative data were used to estimate the transitions between these segments for the 2001-2005 period. Markov chain models were then applied and 5-, 10- and 20-year projections were calculated. Various discrepancies were discovered between the projected structures of the military, segments and the official targets. Finally, we addressed two optimisation questions: 'Which transitions would lead to the desired structure in five years' time?' and 'Which transitions would sustain the desired structure in the long run?'. A heuristic modelling approach was applied here, i.e. we used a simulation model with a specific loss function. To perform feasible simulations of the probabilities in a 120 x 120 matrix, only those transitions were simulated where experts had previously estimated that real measures existed to provide potential change (recruitment policy, regulation of promotion, retirement strategy etc). Povzetek: V clanku je predstavljen primer nacrtovanja kadrov v Slovenski wojski.