The Primacy of Doubt
From Quantum Physics to Climate Change, How the Science of Uncertainty Can Help Us Understand Our Chaotic World
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4.7 • 3 Ratings
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- $18.99
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- $18.99
Publisher Description
“Quite possibly the best popular science book I’ve ever read” (Popular Science) shows how the tools that enabled us to overcome the uncertainty of the weather will enable us to find new answers to modern science's most pressing questions
Why does your weather app say “There’s a 10% chance of rain” instead of “It will be sunny tomorrow”? In large part this is due to the insight of Tim Palmer, who made uncertainty essential to the study of weather and climate. Now he wants to apply it to how we study everything else.
In The Primacy of Doubt, Palmer argues that embracing the mathematics of uncertainty is vital to understanding ourselves and the universe around us. Whether we want to predict climate change or market crashes, understand how the brain is able to outpace supercomputers, or find a theory that links quantum and cosmological physics, Palmer shows how his vision of mathematical uncertainty provides new insights into some of the deepest problems in science. The result is a revolution—one that shows that power begins by embracing what we don’t know.
PUBLISHERS WEEKLY
Physicist Palmer delivers a challenging but rewarding look at how uncertainty helps scientists make sense of the world. Much of the work draws on "the science of chaos," which Palmer writes has "impacted... almost all branches of science: not only astronomy, meteorology, and ecology, but chemistry, engineering, biology, and social science." Regarding the math and science of weather forecasting models, which have "several billion variables," Palmer considers whether the "same ensemble techniques that have transformed weather and climate prediction" could also make waves in economics, such as by potentially allowing economists to forecast market shifts and crashes. Elsewhere, he tackles the uncertainty in pandemics (and explains how Covid prediction models work), investigates how uncertainty might help answer questions about dark matter and energy, and closes with a provocative account of how consciousness arises, in which he suggests that "to be conscious of an object is to be aware that the object has an existence independent of the rest of the world." Despite the complexity of his arguments, the author succeeds at bringing complicated theories within reach of those who have a basic familiarity with physics. Science-minded readers, take note.
