"Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century." —Rachel Maddow, author of Drift Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. The New York Times now publishes FiveThirtyEight.com, where Silver is one of the nation’s most influential political forecasters. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have...
APPLE BOOKS REVIEW
Nate Silver rocketed to fame thanks to his shockingly accurate 2008 and 2012 election predictions. His first book sees him applying that love of number crunching to everything from baseball to climate change. The surprising central argument of The Signal and the Noise is that, in our era of information overload, it’s more useful than ever to take a big-picture view and look for historical trends rather than focusing on specific data points. Silver’s clear, relatable analysis means you don’t need a math degree to follow along—and his willingness to question everything will appeal to fans of Freakonomics or Moneyball.
Despite the fact that there is more information about everything from finance to professional sports available than ever before, predictions "may be more prone to failure" in this "era of Big Data." Balancing technical detail and thoughtful analysis with fluid prose, statistician Silver (FiveThirtyEight ) picks apart the many ways in which predictions in various fields have been flawed, while suggesting approaches that could improve the practice. The catastrophic miscalculations on the part of financial lending agencies that led to the recession of 2008 arose for the same types of reasons that caused baseball scouts to undervalue Boston Red Sox all-star player Dustin Pedroia or feed into a political pundit's flawed forecast: overconfidence in models based on oversimplified principles and unrealistic initial assumptions. Though there is no simple solution, a Bayesian methodology, in which prior beliefs are taken into account and initial assumptions constantly revised, would lead to more accurate predictive models. Effective prediction requires, according to Silver, "the serenity to accept the things we cannot predict, the courage to predict the things we can, and the wisdom to know the difference."
Fix the footnotes
I’m having the same problem with the footnotes as 1bayguy. The starred notes actually are on the “blank” page, but they’re initially covered by the exit menu and the font is microscopic.
Outstanding synthesis of signal vs noise in data, heuristics & biases & applying Bayes Theorem
I was fascinated with Silver’s approach as I have been using a similar one in examining risk assessment & forecast uncertainty since the mid 1990s. However, he has taken it the extra step of using a very practical quantitative approach to improving assessments—as new data comes to light consider how to properly weight it within the current body of knowledge you possess. I highly recommend this text to anyone seeking to improve their approach to properly analyze any situation characterized by imperfect knowledge. Each example he uses to demonstrate signal vs. noise provides additional insight to the reader.
This electronic version has asterisks in the text that, when touched, go to a blank page. But the numbered footnotes seem to work. Doesn't anyone check this sort of thing before the book is released?