The Storm Before the Calm
America's Discord, the Coming Crisis of the 2020s, and the Triumph Beyond
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4.3 • 109 Ratings
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- $14.99
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- $14.99
Publisher Description
*One of Bloomberg's Best Books of the Year*
The master geopolitical forecaster and New York Times bestselling author of The Next 100 Years focuses on the United States, predicting how the 2020s will bring dramatic upheaval and reshaping of American government, foreign policy, economics, and culture.
In his riveting new book, noted forecaster and bestselling author George Friedman turns to the future of the United States. Examining the clear cycles through which the United States has developed, upheaved, matured, and solidified, Friedman breaks down the coming years and decades in thrilling detail.
American history must be viewed in cycles—particularly, an eighty-year "institutional cycle" that has defined us (there are three such examples—the Revolutionary War/founding, the Civil War, and World War II), and a fifty-year "socio-economic cycle" that has seen the formation of the industrial classes, baby boomers, and the middle classes. These two major cycles are both converging on the late 2020s—a time in which many of these foundations will change. The United States will have to endure upheaval and possible conflict, but also, ultimately, increased strength, stability, and power in the world.
Friedman's analysis is detailed and fascinating, and covers issues such as the size and scope of the federal government, the future of marriage and the social contract, shifts in corporate structures, and new cultural trends that will react to longer life expectancies. This new book is both provocative and entertaining.
Customer Reviews
Compelling book
Regardless of what happens a lot of the points made are realistic and based in some writing-on-the-wall common sense thinking. It doesn’t lean any way politically, at least I feel, and I can see a lot of what’s talked about in the book in today’s headlines in some form.
The Storm Before The Calm
I enjoyed reviewing so much history, along with so many comparisons and predictions! The best history teacher I’ve ever had!
Friedman’s best work yet
George Friedman tasks himself with predicting the future.
Unlike taking on the daunting task of predicting future technology, something Michio Kaku does well in Physics of the Future, Friedman introduces us to the concept of the “fourth turning theory” but with his own take. His prediction is general, some may call it vague, but it all makes sense and sounds reasonable by the end. All he is predicting is the geopolitical situation of the future as it pertains to America specifically.
His method, I have read in earlier reviews, can appear to insult the intelligence of history buffs; for this, I recommend skipping to about chapter 3. He uses the history of the United States as a warrant and backing for his prediction of the future. If you are a history buff, I would recommend still listening to the first two chapters as the specifics of his historical coverage are fitting for the conclusions he draws.
What’s nice is his history lesson leads right up to present time, and makes the predictions seem very reasonable. Unlike his previous works, taking a longer term view (to the year 2100), this one pulls back and focuses on the 2020s-2030s, only venturing into more distant predictions (out to ~2060) at the very end.
I also appreciate his indifference of the internal politics of the United States. Friedman’s opinions are fairly delivered. His analysis is highly insightful. This is a book written by a brilliant analyst who simply wants to share with you his method of forecasting in a non technical form. The Storm Before the Calm is concise and comprehensive and that fine line is expertly walked in this revealing book on American politics.