Track II Interventions and the Kurdish Question in Turkey: An Analysis Using a Theories of Change Approach‪.‬

Abstract In October 2005, a small number of prominent members of the Turkish academy and NGO sector were brought to Sofia, Bulgaria for three days to discuss the Kurdish question in Turkey. Using the discussions from the workshop as a starting point, this article presents an argument regarding what type of Track II interventions make sense in Turkey, given the nature of the conflict there. To make this argument, the article draws on the concept of "theories of change." This concept, developed initially in the monitoring and evaluation field, refers to the idea that any intervention in society, including Track II interventions, is informed by an implicit or explicit theory of change regarding how the project will produce the desired change in society. Four theories of change are described and then assessed in the context of a conflict analysis of the Kurdish Question in Turkey. The conclusion reached is that each of four theories of change are relevant to Track II projects in Turkey. However, each theory of change is only relevant to certain elements of the overall conflict. As a result, we argue that interventions based on each theory of change must be targeted at specific sectoral and geographic audiences in order to be effective.