The second installment of the best-selling "Unreported Truths" series about the coronavirus from former New York Times reporter Alex Berenson; Part 2 examines the evidence that lockdowns work -or don't.
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Exposed Failed Models
Really well put together. Easy to digest with links back to source info. What really stood out to me was how much we’re basing our decisions and policies on completely failed models.
Alex Berenson is pushing disinformation about COVID-19 and endangering public health
I read the free excerpt posted on Alex Berenson's website. The booklet is based on a false premise; it claims: "Based on the CDC’s scale, Sars-Cov-2 almost certainly should be classified as Category 2 epidemic." This is false. If you click on the link in the booklet, the CDC document says, "This guidance introduces, for the first time, a Pandemic Severity Index in which the case fatality ratio (the proportion of deaths among clinically ill persons) serves as the critical driver for categorizing the severity of a pandemic." (p. 7) Now if you go back to Berenson's first booklet, it includes a link (I believe that I can't include links in my review) to the CDC's best estimate of the infection fatality ratio. Berenson knew at the time that the CDC's estimate of the IFR was widely criticized by public health experts for underestimating the mortality, though he cited it as authoritative, despite the outcry (which he didn’t mention). In July, the CDC updated its estimate so that it represents the current consensus among epidemiologists. The CDC's Current Best Estimate of the infection fatality ratio for COVID-19 is 0.0065, which is 0.65%. Below that, the CDC estimates that 40% of COVID-19 infections are asymptomatic. That means that the case fatality ratio is 1.08%. (IFR = CFR * proportion of symptomatic, i.e. clinically ill, people). Hence, the COVID-19 pandemic is a Category 4 pandemic, as the case fatality ratio for a Category 4 pandemic is 1.0-<2.0.
The CDC recommends widespread use of non-pharmaceutical interventions for a Category 4 pandemic. for example: "prolonged (up to 12 weeks) dismissal of students and closure of childcare facilities during a severe influenza pandemic (Category 4 or Category 5)." (p. 37)
Hence, Berenson's entire booklet is based on the false premise that the COVID-19 pandemic is a Category 2 pandemic, when in fact, it is a Category 4 pandemic.
Really. Just smh...