We Need to Talk: The Case for a Multidisciplinary Approach to Designing Green Policy (Report‪)‬

INTRODUCTION The years 1972 and 1973 were particularly turbulent ones for the petroleum industry. A combination of economic and political factors led to a number of significant increases in the price of oil and finally in October 1973 to the Arab oil embargo. Suddenly oil was scarce and much more expensive when it could be found. There was considerable doubt whether the standard of living we had become accustomed to in Europe and North America could be sustained. These shocks led to the first major energy conservation movement in the 20th century. In 1972, the United States consumed 16.37 million barrels of oil per day [1]. The average [2] U.S. domestic automobile got about 14 miles per U.S. gallon and the average U.S. import automobile got about 22.9 miles per U.S. gallon [3]. By 2004 (the last year for which the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, NHTSA, has posted data), the average U.S. domestic automobile got 29.9 miles per U.S. gallon [4] while the average U.S. import automobile got 28.7 miles per U.S. gallon (p. 22 in [4]). The doubling in efficiency of U.S. domestic automobiles must therefore have resulted in a significant reduction in U.S. consumption of oil, which was the whole point of the legislatively mandated improvements in automotive fuel economy. Yet even without looking up the data, we all suspect that this is not the case. When we look up the data, it is worse than we might have imagined. By 2004, the United States was consuming 20.73 million barrels of oil per day (p. 325 in [1]), some 27 % more than in 1972. Why is this so? It is true that the number of vehicles has increased. In 1972, the number of registered vehicles in the United States was 118796671 [5]. By 2004, that number had grown to 237949800 [6]. In all the circumstances, a 27 % increase in oil consumption is not terrible, but the whole point of conservation was to reduce consumption, not increase it. This is why we (scientists, economists, and policy makers) need to talk.