Scotland's Potential Independence: Defense Implications for Britain, NATO, and the United States - UK's Nuclear Weapons Deterrence Posture with Trident Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missiles

This important 2018 report has been professionally converted for accurate flowing-text e-book format reproduction.

The significance of an independent Scotland would reach far beyond the borders of the United Kingdom (UK). Although the first Scottish independence referendum did not pass in September 2014, it raised some important questions that could affect the security of Europe and North America. The June 2016 "Brexit" vote calling for the UK's withdrawal from the European Union has fueled speculation about a second possible referendum on Scottish independence, owing to the fact that a majority of Scots voted to remain in the EU. This thesis examines the potential consequences of an independent Scotland through the lessons learned from Scotland's 2014 referendum and analyses by scholars in international relations and strategic studies. These possible consequences could include the weakening of the UK's defense posture, the UK's possible abandonment of its nuclear weapons, and uncertain prospects for a Scottish application to join NATO. The ramifications could be substantial for the security policies of the United Kingdom, the United States, and NATO as a whole.

I. INTRODUCTION * A. LITERATURE REVIEW AND METHODOLOGY * B. THESIS ORGANIZATION * II. SCOTLAND AND GREAT BRITAIN FROM THE MIDDLE AGES TO THE SCOTTISH NATIONAL PARTY * A. POLITICAL RELATIONS * B. THE SCOTTISH NATIONAL PARTY * C. DEFENSE RELATIONS * III. EFFECT OF SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE ON THE DEFENSE * STRUCTURE OF THE UNITED KINGDOM * A. SCOTLAND'S POTENTIAL FORCE * B. UNITED KINGDOM'S FLUCTUATING DEFENSE POLICY * IV. FUTURE OF THE UK'S NUCLEAR DETERRENCE POSTURE * A. ALTERNATIVE LOCATIONS FOR TRIDENT * B. NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT * V. AN INDEPENDENT SCOTLAND AND NATO * A. DEFENSE SPENDING PROMISE * B. NUCLEAR WEAPONS * C. "TRIPLE LOCK" SYSTEM * D. SECESSIONISM * E. CONCLUSIONS REGARDING SCOTLAND AND NATO * MEMBERSHIP * VI. CONCLUSION