Pass Or Run: An Empirical Test of the Matching Pennies Game Using Data from the National Football League‪.‬

1. Introduction Standard economic optimizing techniques, such as isoquant and isocost analysis, predict that when an input becomes less productive, firms will use it less and use more of their other inputs instead. Consider the case of American football. The offense has two main options. It can run the ball, or it can pass the ball. Next, suppose a starting National Football League (NFL) quarterback is injured. If we assume that the starting quarterback is more proficient than his replacement, the standard optimizing approach suggests that the coach will have the replacement quarterback throw less frequently. That is, the coach will decrease his use of the input with diminished productivity, and he will use the running back, whose productivity has not changed, more often.